Football · Poland III Liga · 04/10, 15:30

Prediction: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Wisla Krakow II

Team pages: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj · Wisla Krakow II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj1.22

Wisla Krakow II1.87

1X2

24% 23% 52%

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Draw Wisla Krakow II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Wisla Krakow II 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDLLDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1460 · Wisla Krakow II 1489

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Draw	Wisla Krakow II
Our model	24%	25%	52%
Market	25%	22%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Wisla Krakow II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 8	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.3 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.96 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +7’	3.60	4.00	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:41 +15’	3.89	3.72	1.67
13:34 +20’	3.96▲	3.79▲	1.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
14	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
15	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
16	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Wisla Krakow II
Naprzod Jedrzejow	1-4 L	0-0 D
Moravia Morawica	2-1 W	1-0 W
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-2 L	1-1 D
Wislanie Jaskowice	2-1 W	1-2 L
Korona Kielce II	1-4 L	2-1 W
Star Starachowice	1-1 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wisla Krakow II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	10	9	L
06/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
29/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	10	7	W
02/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Wisla Krakow II

WWLDWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	3-3	–	–	D
12/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
05/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
30/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
22/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	12	9	L
08/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-1	4-2	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Wisla Krakow II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wisla Krakow II win (52%). Probabilities: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 24%, draw 23%, Wisla Krakow II 52%.

How many goals are expected in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Wisla Krakow II?

The model expects 3.1 goals (AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1.22 · Wisla Krakow II 1.87), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Wisla Krakow II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.