Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 17:00

Prediction: Wigry Suwalki vs Wisla Plock II

Team pages: Wigry Suwalki · Wisla Plock II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Wigry Suwalki1.83

Wisla Plock II1.47

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Wigry Suwalki Draw Wisla Plock II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wigry Suwalki 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWLDWW

Wisla Plock II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Wigry Suwalki 2–1–1 Wisla Plock II (4 last)

Wisla Plock II2-2Wigry Suwalki
Wigry Suwalki3-2Wisla Plock II
Wisla Plock II2-1Wigry Suwalki
Wigry Suwalki2-0Wisla Plock II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wigry Suwalki 1531 · Wisla Plock II 1521

	Wigry Suwalki	Draw	Wisla Plock II
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wigry Suwalki: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wigry Suwalki	Wisla Plock II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +28’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wigry Suwalki 2–1–1 Wisla Plock II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	2-2 HT 1-2	Wigry Suwalki
30/08/25 Poland III Liga	Wigry Suwalki	3-2 HT 2-2	Wisla Plock II
27/04/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	2-1 HT 1-0	Wigry Suwalki
29/09/24 Poland III Liga	Wigry Suwalki	2-0 HT 1-0	Wisla Plock II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wigry Suwalki	Wisla Plock II
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-0 W	2-3 L
Widzew Lodz II	6-3 W	2-0 W
Olimpia Zambrow	1-1 D	3-4 L
Polonia Lidzbark	1-3 L	1-1 D
Olimpia Elblag	3-1 W	2-1 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-1 D	2-1 W
LKS Lodz II	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wigry Suwalki (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wigry Suwalki

WDWDDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
20/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-2	6-3	–	–	W
12/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	8	1	L
29/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	6	3	W
23/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
14/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
07/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Wisla Plock II

WWDDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
12/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	3-0	5-3	5	7	W
23/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	7	3	L
19/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D
15/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
31/07	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	8	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wigry Suwalki vs Wisla Plock II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wigry Suwalki win (45%). Probabilities: Wigry Suwalki 45%, draw 25%, Wisla Plock II 30%.

How many goals are expected in Wigry Suwalki vs Wisla Plock II?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Wigry Suwalki 1.83 · Wisla Plock II 1.47), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wigry Suwalki vs Wisla Plock II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.