Football · Poland III Liga · 14/10, 15:00

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs CK Troszyn

Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok II · CK Troszyn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok II2.2

CK Troszyn1.06

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Jagiellonia Bialystok II Draw CK Troszyn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWWLLD

CK Troszyn 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWDLDL

Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 0–1–1 CK Troszyn (2 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok II0-1CK Troszyn
CK Troszyn1-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1489 · CK Troszyn 1460

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Draw	CK Troszyn
Our model	62%	21%	16%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	CK Troszyn
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:37 +3’	1.44	4.33	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 0–1–1 CK Troszyn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	0-1 HT 0-1	CK Troszyn
31/10/25 Poland III Liga	CK Troszyn	1-1 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	CK Troszyn
Wisla Plock II	1-2 L	1-2 L
LKS Lodz II	2-3 L	1-1 D
Mlawianka Mlawa	7-4 W	1-4 L
LKS Lomza	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-1 D	2-0 W
KTS Weszlo	0-4 L	3-3 D
Pelikan Lowicz	3-0 W	1-1 D
Warta Sieradz	2-2 D	1-4 L
Wigry Suwalki	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Jagiellonia Bialystok II (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

DDWLDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
25/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
19/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
12/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	2-2	7-4	6	5	W
05/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
29/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
19/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	5	D

CK Troszyn

LLLDDWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
12/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
29/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
23/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	9	2	L
14/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-4	1-4	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs CK Troszyn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok II win (63%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok II 63%, draw 21%, CK Troszyn 16%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs CK Troszyn?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok II 2.2 · CK Troszyn 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs CK Troszyn?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.