Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn

Team pages: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki · CK Troszyn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki2.18

CK Troszyn1.21

1X2

59% 21% 20%

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Draw CK Troszyn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWWLW

CK Troszyn 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDLDLWD

Head-to-head

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1–1 CK Troszyn (2 last)

CK Troszyn5-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki2-1CK Troszyn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1504 · CK Troszyn 1500

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Draw	CK Troszyn
Our model	58%	22%	20%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	CK Troszyn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +4’	1.53	4.33	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1–0–1 CK Troszyn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Poland III Liga	CK Troszyn	5-0 HT 2-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
09/08/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2-1 HT 1-1	CK Troszyn

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	CK Troszyn
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	3-1 W	1-0 W
LKS Lodz II	2-7 L	1-1 D
Mlawianka Mlawa	4-2 W	1-4 L
LKS Lomza	4-0 W	1-1 D
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	2-0 W
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	3-3 D
Pelikan Lowicz	1-4 L	1-1 D
Warta Sieradz	2-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

LDWLLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-7	7	1	L
03/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
25/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
18/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
29/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

CK Troszyn

LDDWDLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
12/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
29/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
23/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki win (59%). Probabilities: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 59%, draw 21%, CK Troszyn 20%.

How many goals are expected in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn?

The model expects 3.39 goals (MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 2.18 · CK Troszyn 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.