Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Kluczevia Stargard vs Flota Swinoujscie

Team pages: Kluczevia Stargard · Flota Swinoujscie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Kluczevia Stargard2.19

Flota Swinoujscie1.13

1X2

61% 22% 18%

Kluczevia Stargard Draw Flota Swinoujscie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Kluczevia Stargard 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWWLLW

Flota Swinoujscie 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Kluczevia Stargard 0–2 Flota Swinoujscie (2 last)

Kluczevia Stargard2-3Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie2-1Kluczevia Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kluczevia Stargard 1540 · Flota Swinoujscie 1449

	Kluczevia Stargard	Draw	Flota Swinoujscie
Our model	61%	22%	18%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kluczevia Stargard (rating 1540 vs 1449).
H2H favours Flota Swinoujscie: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kluczevia Stargard	Flota Swinoujscie
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	2.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +16’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kluczevia Stargard 0–0–2 Flota Swinoujscie

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	2-3 HT 0-1	Flota Swinoujscie
13/09/25 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-1 HT 0-1	Kluczevia Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kluczevia Stargard	Flota Swinoujscie
Wda Swiecie	2-1 W	0-1 L
Elana Torun	2-1 W	0-1 L
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	0-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	2-0 W	0-2 L
Grom Nowy Staw	4-3 W	0-5 L
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	1-1 D
Lipno Steszew	4-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Kluczevia Stargard (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kluczevia Stargard

WDWWLWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
09/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
23/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	–	–	W
19/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W

Flota Swinoujscie

WDLWDLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
09/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
03/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
19/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-5	0-5	4	5	L
12/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kluczevia Stargard vs Flota Swinoujscie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kluczevia Stargard win (61%). Probabilities: Kluczevia Stargard 61%, draw 22%, Flota Swinoujscie 18%.

How many goals are expected in Kluczevia Stargard vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Kluczevia Stargard 2.19 · Flota Swinoujscie 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kluczevia Stargard vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.