Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Team pages: KKS 1925 Kalisz · Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

KKS 1925 Kalisz1.51

Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.25

1X2

25% 22% 53%

KKS 1925 Kalisz Draw Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

KKS 1925 Kalisz 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDDDWLLL

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDDWWW

Head-to-head

KKS 1925 Kalisz 4–1 Polonia Sroda Wlkp (5 last)

KKS 1925 Kalisz3-2Polonia Sroda Wlkp
KKS 1925 Kalisz2-0Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp4-2KKS 1925 Kalisz
KKS 1925 Kalisz2-1Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp0-4KKS 1925 Kalisz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KKS 1925 Kalisz 1471 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1599

	KKS 1925 Kalisz	Draw	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Our model	25%	22%	53%
Market	25%	22%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1471 vs 1599).
H2H favours KKS 1925 Kalisz: 4-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KKS 1925 Kalisz	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	3.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +15’	3.60	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KKS 1925 Kalisz 4–0–1 Polonia Sroda Wlkp

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/22 Europe Friendlies	KKS 1925 Kalisz	3-2 HT 3-1	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
02/11/19 Poland III Liga	KKS 1925 Kalisz	2-0 HT 1-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
12/06/19 Poland Regional Cup	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	4-2 HT 3-0	KKS 1925 Kalisz
13/04/19 Poland III Liga	KKS 1925 Kalisz	2-1 HT 1-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
08/09/18 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	0-4 HT 0-3	KKS 1925 Kalisz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KKS 1925 Kalisz	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Lipno Steszew	0-1 L	3-2 W
Lech Poznan II	2-4 L	3-2 W
Blekitni Stargard	0-5 L	4-1 W
Kluczevia Stargard	1-0 W	2-0 W
Wda Swiecie	1-1 D	4-0 W
Elana Torun	5-1 W	2-2 D
Notec Czarnkow	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Sroda Wlkp (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KKS 1925 Kalisz

LDWDDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	3	2	L
03/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-4	0-5	4	2	L
27/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
19/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
05/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
23/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

WWWDWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	6	7	W
09/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
03/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	5	W
26/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
19/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	5	W
05/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	7	6	D
28/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	4-3	6	7	W
22/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (53%). Probabilities: KKS 1925 Kalisz 25%, draw 22%, Polonia Sroda Wlkp 53%.

How many goals are expected in KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

The model expects 3.76 goals (KKS 1925 Kalisz 1.51 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.25), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.