Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Chelmianka Chelm vs Korona Kielce II

Team pages: Chelmianka Chelm · Korona Kielce II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Chelmianka Chelm2.26

Korona Kielce II1.22

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Chelmianka Chelm Draw Korona Kielce II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmianka Chelm 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWDWD

Korona Kielce II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Chelmianka Chelm 2–2–2 Korona Kielce II (6 last)

Chelmianka Chelm4-1Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II3-1Chelmianka Chelm
Chelmianka Chelm1-2Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II2-4Chelmianka Chelm
Korona Kielce II3-3Chelmianka Chelm
Chelmianka Chelm0-0Korona Kielce II

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmianka Chelm (rating 1581 vs 1479).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmianka Chelm	Korona Kielce II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.86

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.40
X	4.55 → 4.55	Pinn 4.55
2	5.14 → 5.14	Pinn 5.14

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:25 +5’	1.40	4.55	5.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmianka Chelm 2–2–2 Korona Kielce II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	4-1 HT 3-1	Korona Kielce II
04/10/25 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	3-1 HT 2-1	Chelmianka Chelm
16/05/25 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	1-2 HT 0-1	Korona Kielce II
19/10/24 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	2-4 HT 1-2	Chelmianka Chelm
20/05/23 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	3-3 HT 2-0	Chelmianka Chelm
15/10/22 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	0-0 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
12	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmianka Chelm	Korona Kielce II
Czarni Polaniec	0-0 D	3-4 L
Star Starachowice	2-1 W	1-4 L
Hetman Zamosc	2-2 D	2-2 D
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2-1 W	4-0 W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1-1 D	2-1 W
Wieczysta Krakow II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Wisloka Debica	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmianka Chelm (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmianka Chelm

WWWWDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/10	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
04/10	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
26/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
29/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Korona Kielce II

DLWLDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	3	14	L
10/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
03/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	10	2	W
19/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
05/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-3	2-6	5	7	L
29/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-1	3-4	2	5	L
19/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmianka Chelm vs Korona Kielce II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmianka Chelm win (60%). Probabilities: Chelmianka Chelm 60%, draw 21%, Korona Kielce II 19%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmianka Chelm vs Korona Kielce II?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Chelmianka Chelm 2.26 · Korona Kielce II 1.22), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmianka Chelm vs Korona Kielce II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.