Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Victoria Wrzesnia vs Notec Czarnkow

Team pages: Victoria Wrzesnia · Notec Czarnkow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Victoria Wrzesnia1.26

Notec Czarnkow1.14

1X2

39% 27% 33%

Victoria Wrzesnia Draw Notec Czarnkow

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Wrzesnia 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDDDDDWD

Notec Czarnkow 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLWDL

Head-to-head

Victoria Wrzesnia 1–1–0 Notec Czarnkow (2 last)

Victoria Wrzesnia0-0Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow0-1Victoria Wrzesnia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Wrzesnia 1496 · Notec Czarnkow 1496

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Draw	Notec Czarnkow
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Notec Czarnkow
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +7’	2.20	3.60	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Wrzesnia 1–1–0 Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Poland III Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 HT 0-0	Notec Czarnkow
12/09/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	0-1 HT 0-1	Victoria Wrzesnia

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Wrzesnia	Notec Czarnkow
KKS 1925 Kalisz	3-3 D	1-0 W
Baltyk Koszalin	0-2 L	0-3 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-0 W	1-1 D
Flota Swinoujscie	0-5 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victoria Wrzesnia

LWLDDDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
03/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
26/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L

Notec Czarnkow

WWLWLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
19/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
05/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
19/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Notec Czarnkow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Victoria Wrzesnia win (39%). Probabilities: Victoria Wrzesnia 39%, draw 27%, Notec Czarnkow 33%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Victoria Wrzesnia 1.26 · Notec Czarnkow 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.