Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Zabkovia Zabki vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Team pages: Zabkovia Zabki · Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Zabkovia Zabki1.97

Jagiellonia Bialystok II1.62

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Zabkovia Zabki Draw Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Zabkovia Zabki 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWLWWL

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDWWLL

Head-to-head

Zabkovia Zabki 1–1 Jagiellonia Bialystok II (2 last)

Zabkovia Zabki0-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II1-5Zabkovia Zabki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zabkovia Zabki 1505 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1517

	Zabkovia Zabki	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Our model	45%	23%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zabkovia Zabki	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	2.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.9	2.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +22’	2.00	3.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zabkovia Zabki 1–0–1 Jagiellonia Bialystok II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Poland III Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	0-1 HT 0-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
27/08/25 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-5 HT 1-2	Zabkovia Zabki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zabkovia Zabki	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Mlawianka Mlawa	3-4 L	7-4 W
LKS Lomza	2-0 W	2-1 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	4-2 W	1-1 D
KTS Weszlo	0-2 L	0-4 L
Pelikan Lowicz	2-1 W	3-0 W
Warta Sieradz	4-0 W	2-2 D
Wigry Suwalki	1-1 D	1-1 D
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Zabkovia Zabki (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zabkovia Zabki

LWLDWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-3	3-4	6	5	L
18/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	10	6	W
11/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	6	W
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
22/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	4-0	12	2	W
19/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
14/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	1	1	L
08/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	4	7	L

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

WDDWLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
19/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
12/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	2-2	7-4	6	5	W
05/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
29/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
19/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/07	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zabkovia Zabki vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zabkovia Zabki win (45%). Probabilities: Zabkovia Zabki 45%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Bialystok II 31%.

How many goals are expected in Zabkovia Zabki vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Zabkovia Zabki 1.97 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1.62), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zabkovia Zabki vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.