Football · Poland III Liga · 15/08, 18:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Team pages: Warta Sieradz · Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Warta Sieradz1.74

Jagiellonia Bialystok II1.02

1X2

54% 25% 22%

Warta Sieradz Draw Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWWWLW

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLWDWD

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 2–2–2 Jagiellonia Bialystok II (6 last)

Warta Sieradz3-3Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II0-2Warta Sieradz
Jagiellonia Bialystok II1-1Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz2-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II2-0Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz0-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1563 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1500

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1563 vs 1500).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.3	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.80
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:23 +9’	1.67	3.75	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:07	1.93	3.80	2.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 2–2–2 Jagiellonia Bialystok II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	3-3 HT 1-3	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
11/10/25 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	0-2 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz
13/04/25 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-1 HT 1-1	Warta Sieradz
14/09/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-1 HT 0-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
27/04/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-0 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz
30/09/23 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	0-1 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
5	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
6	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
7	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Mlawianka Mlawa	1-2 L	1-0 W
Bron Radom	1-0 W	2-1 W
Wigry Suwalki	2-1 W	1-1 D
KS Wasilkow	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Warta Sieradz

WDWDDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
08/07	LKS Lodz II Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
17/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/04	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-3	3-3	6	6	D
25/04	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

WLDLWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/07	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	5	7	W
30/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
23/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
17/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
13/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
30/04	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	3-1	3-3	3	6	D
25/04	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	7	5	L
19/04	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Sieradz win (54%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 54%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok II 22%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Warta Sieradz 1.74 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.