Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Zabkovia Zabki

Team pages: Warta Sieradz · Zabkovia Zabki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Warta Sieradz2.01

Zabkovia Zabki1.12

1X2

57% 22% 20%

Warta Sieradz Draw Zabkovia Zabki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWLWDW

Zabkovia Zabki 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLLWLD

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 1–1 Zabkovia Zabki (2 last)

Warta Sieradz2-1Zabkovia Zabki
Zabkovia Zabki2-1Warta Sieradz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1557 · Zabkovia Zabki 1468

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Zabkovia Zabki
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	58%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1557 vs 1468).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Zabkovia Zabki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.4	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.57 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:07 +2’	1.55	4.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:35 +1’	1.57	3.86	4.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 1–0–1 Zabkovia Zabki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-1 HT 1-0	Zabkovia Zabki
23/08/25 Poland III Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	2-1 HT 1-0	Warta Sieradz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Zabkovia Zabki
Bron Radom	1-0 W	0-0 D
Wigry Suwalki	2-1 W	1-1 D
GKS Wikielec	1-1 D	2-2 D
KS Wasilkow	3-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Sieradz

DWDDWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
15/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
30/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
17/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/04	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-3	3-3	6	6	D

Zabkovia Zabki

LLDWDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
14/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	1	1	L
08/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	4	7	L
30/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
16/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	3-1	6-2	–	–	W
13/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
09/05	Legia Warsaw II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
01/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Zabkovia Zabki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Sieradz win (57%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 57%, draw 22%, Zabkovia Zabki 20%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Warta Sieradz 2.01 · Zabkovia Zabki 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.