Football · Poland III Liga · 04/09, 17:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elblag

Team pages: Warta Sieradz · Olimpia Elblag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Warta Sieradz1.88

Olimpia Elblag1.23

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Warta Sieradz Draw Olimpia Elblag

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWDWLL

Olimpia Elblag 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWWLDL

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 2–0 Olimpia Elblag (2 last)

Warta Sieradz4-1Olimpia Elblag
Olimpia Elblag0-2Warta Sieradz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1521 · Olimpia Elblag 1469

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Olimpia Elblag
Our model	52%	25%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1521 vs 1469).
H2H favours Warta Sieradz: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Olimpia Elblag
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.3	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:54 +10’	1.73	3.80	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 2–0–0 Olimpia Elblag

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/03/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	4-1 HT 3-0	Olimpia Elblag
09/08/25 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Elblag	0-2 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
3	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
5	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
6	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
13	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
14	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Olimpia Elblag
Wigry Suwalki	2-1 W	1-3 L
Wisla Plock II	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Sieradz

DDWWLWDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	8	2	L
19/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
15/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
30/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
17/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D

Olimpia Elblag

LDLDLWWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	7	3	L
22/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
19/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
07/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	5	4	W
31/07	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
30/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	2-3	2-3	7	12	L
17/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
13/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-3	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elblag?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Sieradz win (52%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 52%, draw 24%, Olimpia Elblag 24%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Warta Sieradz 1.88 · Olimpia Elblag 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.