Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lodz II

Team pages: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki · LKS Lodz II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.93

LKS Lodz II1.29

1X2

52% 24% 25%

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Draw LKS Lodz II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLLWWW

LKS Lodz II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWWDWD

Head-to-head

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 0–2–2 LKS Lodz II (4 last)

LKS Lodz II1-1MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki0-2LKS Lodz II
LKS Lodz II6-1MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki0-0LKS Lodz II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1529 · LKS Lodz II 1484

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Draw	LKS Lodz II
Our model	51%	24%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (rating 1529 vs 1484).
H2H favours LKS Lodz II: 2-2-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	LKS Lodz II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.9	3.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +6’	1.73	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 0–2–2 LKS Lodz II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/23 Poland III Liga	LKS Lodz II	1-1 HT 1-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
15/10/22 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-2 HT 0-1	LKS Lodz II
18/06/22 Poland III Liga	LKS Lodz II	6-1 HT 4-1	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
20/11/21 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-0 HT 0-0	LKS Lodz II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	LKS Lodz II
Mlawianka Mlawa	4-2 W	2-0 W
LKS Lomza	4-0 W	4-3 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	3-4 L
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	0-2 L
Pelikan Lowicz	1-4 L	1-2 L
Warta Sieradz	2-1 W	0-1 L
Wigry Suwalki	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

WDLDWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
25/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
18/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
29/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	3-0	4-0	15	2	W

LKS Lodz II

LLLLLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
12/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	8	7	D
06/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
30/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-3	4-3	9	3	W
23/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	3-4	9	5	L
19/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
15/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
09/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
02/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lodz II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki win (52%). Probabilities: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 52%, draw 24%, LKS Lodz II 25%.

How many goals are expected in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lodz II?

The model expects 3.22 goals (MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.93 · LKS Lodz II 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lodz II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.