Football · Poland III Liga · 09/10, 19:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Wigry Suwalki

Team pages: Warta Sieradz · Wigry Suwalki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Warta Sieradz1.49

Wigry Suwalki1.63

1X2

34% 25% 40%

Warta Sieradz Draw Wigry Suwalki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLWWDD

Wigry Suwalki 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 3–1 Wigry Suwalki (4 last)

Warta Sieradz2-1Wigry Suwalki
Wigry Suwalki1-2Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz3-2Wigry Suwalki
Wigry Suwalki4-0Warta Sieradz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1527 · Wigry Suwalki 1514

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Wigry Suwalki
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Warta Sieradz: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Wigry Suwalki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.9	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:06 +6’	2.60	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 3–0–1 Wigry Suwalki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-1 HT 0-0	Wigry Suwalki
08/11/25 Poland III Liga	Wigry Suwalki	1-2 HT 1-0	Warta Sieradz
31/05/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	3-2 HT 1-2	Wigry Suwalki
08/11/24 Poland III Liga	Wigry Suwalki	4-0 HT 1-0	Warta Sieradz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
14	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
15	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
16	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Wigry Suwalki
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	1-1 D	2-0 W
Olimpia Zambrow	2-2 D	1-1 D
Polonia Lidzbark	2-1 W	1-3 L
Olimpia Elblag	4-1 W	3-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-2 L	0-0 D
Zabkovia Zabki	0-4 L	1-1 D
CK Troszyn	4-1 W	1-0 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Sieradz

LWDWLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
19/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
12/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
04/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
29/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	8	2	L
19/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
15/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	11	3	L

Wigry Suwalki

DWDDWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
26/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
20/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-2	6-3	–	–	W
12/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	8	1	L
29/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	6	3	W
23/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
14/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
07/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Wigry Suwalki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wigry Suwalki win (40%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 34%, draw 25%, Wigry Suwalki 40%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Wigry Suwalki?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Warta Sieradz 1.49 · Wigry Suwalki 1.63), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Wigry Suwalki?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.