Football · Poland III Liga · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: Elana Torun vs Lech Poznan II

Team pages: Elana Torun · Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Elana Torun1.3

Lech Poznan II2.15

1X2

22% 22% 56%

Elana Torun Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Elana Torun 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDDWLLLLL

Lech Poznan II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWWLDW

Head-to-head

Elana Torun 1–3–2 Lech Poznan II (6 last)

Lech Poznan II1-2Elana Torun
Elana Torun2-4Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II1-1Elana Torun
Elana Torun0-0Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II3-2Elana Torun
Lech Poznan II2-2Elana Torun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elana Torun 1435 · Lech Poznan II 1494

	Elana Torun	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	22%	22%	56%
Market	22%	22%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan II (rating 1435 vs 1494).
H2H favours Lech Poznan II: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elana Torun	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.7	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 5.7	3.9 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.10

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:31 +4’	4.10	4.10	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elana Torun 1–3–2 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/11/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-2 HT 1-2	Elana Torun
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	2-4 HT 2-1	Lech Poznan II
09/03/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-1 HT 1-0	Elana Torun
17/08/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-0 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan II
08/08/20 Poland Cup	Lech Poznan II	3-2 HT 2-0	Elana Torun
17/06/20 Poland II Liga	Lech Poznan II	2-2 HT 2-1	Elana Torun

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Czarni Polaniec	8	6	0	2	14	9	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Wisloka Debica	8	4	1	3	11	11	13
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
8	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
9	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	8	1	3	4	7	14	6
17	Moravia Morawica	8	2	0	6	8	16	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elana Torun	Lech Poznan II
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	2-3 L	1-1 D
Grom Nowy Staw	2-1 W	2-4 L
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	3-2 W
Lipno Steszew	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan II (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elana Torun

LLDDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	6	6	L
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
30/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
23/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	0	1	L

Lech Poznan II

LLWDLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
15/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-4	2-4	7	5	L
08/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
01/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	3-1	5-2	7	6	W
30/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elana Torun vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lech Poznan II win (56%). Probabilities: Elana Torun 22%, draw 22%, Lech Poznan II 56%.

How many goals are expected in Elana Torun vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Elana Torun 1.3 · Lech Poznan II 2.15), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Elana Torun vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.