Football · Poland III Liga · 25/09, 16:00

Prediction: Zabkovia Zabki vs Mlawianka Mlawa

Team pages: Zabkovia Zabki · Mlawianka Mlawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Zabkovia Zabki2.26

Mlawianka Mlawa1.6

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Zabkovia Zabki Draw Mlawianka Mlawa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Zabkovia Zabki 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWLWW

Mlawianka Mlawa 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLLLW

Head-to-head

Zabkovia Zabki 2–1 Mlawianka Mlawa (3 last)

Mlawianka Mlawa2-1Zabkovia Zabki
Zabkovia Zabki6-2Mlawianka Mlawa
Mlawianka Mlawa0-2Zabkovia Zabki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zabkovia Zabki 1520 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1461

	Zabkovia Zabki	Draw	Mlawianka Mlawa
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zabkovia Zabki (rating 1520 vs 1461).
H2H favours Zabkovia Zabki: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zabkovia Zabki	Mlawianka Mlawa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.7 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.6	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +4’	1.73	4.00	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zabkovia Zabki 2–0–1 Mlawianka Mlawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	2-1 HT 0-0	Zabkovia Zabki
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	6-2 HT 2-2	Mlawianka Mlawa
27/06/21 Poland IV Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	0-2 HT 0-1	Zabkovia Zabki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zabkovia Zabki	Mlawianka Mlawa
LKS Lomza	2-0 W	0-0 D
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	4-2 W	2-3 L
KTS Weszlo	0-2 L	1-5 L
Pelikan Lowicz	2-1 W	0-1 L
Warta Sieradz	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zabkovia Zabki (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zabkovia Zabki

LLWLDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	10	6	W
11/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	6	W
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
22/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	4-0	12	2	W
19/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
14/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	1	1	L
08/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	4	7	L
30/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L

Mlawianka Mlawa

LWLLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
12/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	2-2	4-7	1	5	L
06/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
29/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-3	3-5	8	7	L
22/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
19/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	14	6	L
14/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	5	5	L
07/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zabkovia Zabki vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zabkovia Zabki win (52%). Probabilities: Zabkovia Zabki 52%, draw 22%, Mlawianka Mlawa 26%.

How many goals are expected in Zabkovia Zabki vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Zabkovia Zabki 2.26 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zabkovia Zabki vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.