Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Pelikan Lowicz vs Widzew Lodz II

Team pages: Widzew Lodz II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Pelikan Lowicz1.8

Widzew Lodz II1.47

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Pelikan Lowicz Draw Widzew Lodz II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pelikan Lowicz 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Widzew Lodz II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pelikan Lowicz 1535 · Widzew Lodz II 1485

	Pelikan Lowicz	Draw	Widzew Lodz II
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pelikan Lowicz (rating 1535 vs 1485).
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pelikan Lowicz	Widzew Lodz II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:32 +7’	2.00	3.75	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pelikan Lowicz	Widzew Lodz II
Olimpia Zambrow	3-1 W	4-3 W
Polonia Lidzbark	1-0 W	4-1 W
Olimpia Elblag	0-1 L	2-0 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	4-1 W	0-0 D
Zabkovia Zabki	1-2 L	0-1 L
CK Troszyn	1-1 D	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Widzew Lodz II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pelikan Lowicz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	2	7	W
19/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
04/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
29/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
23/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
15/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	5	W
07/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
01/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	5	4	W

Widzew Lodz II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	2-3	3-6	–	–	L
11/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	2	2	L
06/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
30/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
19/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	6	6	W
30/05	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	13	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pelikan Lowicz vs Widzew Lodz II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pelikan Lowicz win (45%). Probabilities: Pelikan Lowicz 45%, draw 24%, Widzew Lodz II 31%.

How many goals are expected in Pelikan Lowicz vs Widzew Lodz II?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Pelikan Lowicz 1.8 · Widzew Lodz II 1.47), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pelikan Lowicz vs Widzew Lodz II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.