Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: LKS Lomza vs Mlawianka Mlawa

Team pages: LKS Lomza · Mlawianka Mlawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

LKS Lomza1.79

Mlawianka Mlawa1.41

1X2

46% 24% 30%

LKS Lomza Draw Mlawianka Mlawa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lomza 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Mlawianka Mlawa 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

LKS Lomza 5–1 Mlawianka Mlawa (6 last)

LKS Lomza2-1Mlawianka Mlawa
Mlawianka Mlawa0-1LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza3-0Mlawianka Mlawa
Mlawianka Mlawa1-2LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza2-1Mlawianka Mlawa
Mlawianka Mlawa2-0LKS Lomza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lomza 1480 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1468

	LKS Lomza	Draw	Mlawianka Mlawa
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LKS Lomza: 5-0-1.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lomza	Mlawianka Mlawa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.3	3.3 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:34 +10’	1.95	3.80	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Lomza 5–0–1 Mlawianka Mlawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-1 HT 1-0	Mlawianka Mlawa
15/11/25 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	0-1 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
10/05/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	3-0 HT 0-0	Mlawianka Mlawa
12/10/24 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	1-2 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
25/05/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-1 HT 1-1	Mlawianka Mlawa
04/11/23 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	2-0 HT 1-0	LKS Lomza

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lomza	Mlawianka Mlawa
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-5 L	2-3 L
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	1-5 L
Pelikan Lowicz	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

LKS Lomza

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
14/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-4	2-5	4	1	L
08/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
26/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
03/06	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
13/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-3	11	2	L

Mlawianka Mlawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	14	6	L
14/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	5	5	L
07/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
25/07	Hutnik Warsaw Europe Friendlies	2-1	4-2	7	4	W
30/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
17/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
09/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lomza vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LKS Lomza win (46%). Probabilities: LKS Lomza 46%, draw 24%, Mlawianka Mlawa 30%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lomza vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model expects 3.2 goals (LKS Lomza 1.79 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.