Football · Poland III Liga · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Team pages: LKS Lomza · Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

LKS Lomza1.43

Jagiellonia Bialystok II1.5

1X2

36% 26% 39%

LKS Lomza Draw Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lomza 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Jagiellonia Bialystok II 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

LKS Lomza 5–1–0 Jagiellonia Bialystok II (6 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok II0-2LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza2-0Jagiellonia Bialystok II
LKS Lomza2-2Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II1-4LKS Lomza
Jagiellonia Bialystok II0-3LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza2-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lomza 1482 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1509

	LKS Lomza	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LKS Lomza: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lomza	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +6’	2.50	3.60	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Lomza 5–1–0 Jagiellonia Bialystok II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	0-2 HT 0-1	LKS Lomza
18/10/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-0 HT 2-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
22/03/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-2 HT 1-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
25/08/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-4 HT 1-2	LKS Lomza
13/04/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	0-3 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
16/09/23 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-1 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
12	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lomza	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Mlawianka Mlawa	0-0 D	1-0 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-5 L	1-1 D
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	0-4 L
Pelikan Lowicz	2-3 L	3-0 W
CK Troszyn	2-0 W	0-1 L
GKS Belchatow	5-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lomza

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-4	6	3	L
22/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
14/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-4	2-5	4	1	L
08/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
03/06	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
19/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/07	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	5	7	W
30/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
23/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
17/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
13/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jagiellonia Bialystok II win (39%). Probabilities: LKS Lomza 36%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia Bialystok II 39%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model expects 2.92 goals (LKS Lomza 1.43 · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1.5), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia Bialystok II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.