Football · Poland III Liga · 18/09, 16:00

Prediction: LKS Lomza vs Zabkovia Zabki

Team pages: LKS Lomza · Zabkovia Zabki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

LKS Lomza1.6

Zabkovia Zabki1.73

1X2

35% 24% 41%

LKS Lomza Draw Zabkovia Zabki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lomza 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDDLLD

Zabkovia Zabki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDWWLW

Head-to-head

LKS Lomza 1–1 Zabkovia Zabki (2 last)

LKS Lomza3-0Zabkovia Zabki
Zabkovia Zabki2-0LKS Lomza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lomza 1440 · Zabkovia Zabki 1501

	LKS Lomza	Draw	Zabkovia Zabki
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zabkovia Zabki (rating 1440 vs 1501).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lomza	Zabkovia Zabki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.70

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +22’	2.55	3.70	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Lomza 1–0–1 Zabkovia Zabki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	3-0 HT 1-0	Zabkovia Zabki
12/09/25 Poland III Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	2-0 HT 1-0	LKS Lomza

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
4	Czarni Polaniec	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
7	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
10	Wisloka Debica	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
17	Moravia Morawica	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lomza	Zabkovia Zabki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-5 L	4-2 W
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	0-2 L
Pelikan Lowicz	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Zabkovia Zabki (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lomza

WLLLLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
30/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-4	6	3	L
22/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
14/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-4	2-5	4	1	L
08/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
03/06	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Zabkovia Zabki

DLLWLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	6	W
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
22/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	4-0	12	2	W
19/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
14/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	1	1	L
08/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	4	7	L
30/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lomza vs Zabkovia Zabki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zabkovia Zabki win (41%). Probabilities: LKS Lomza 35%, draw 24%, Zabkovia Zabki 41%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lomza vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model expects 3.33 goals (LKS Lomza 1.6 · Zabkovia Zabki 1.73), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.