Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: Chelmianka Chelm vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Team pages: Chelmianka Chelm · Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Chelmianka Chelm1.88

Podlasie Biala Podlaska0.65

1X2

66% 23% 11%

Chelmianka Chelm Draw Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmianka Chelm 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWDD

Podlasie Biala Podlaska 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLDLWL

Head-to-head

Chelmianka Chelm 2–1–3 Podlasie Biala Podlaska (6 last)

Chelmianka Chelm1-0Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Podlasie Biala Podlaska0-3Chelmianka Chelm
Podlasie Biala Podlaska1-1Chelmianka Chelm
Chelmianka Chelm0-1Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Podlasie Biala Podlaska3-1Chelmianka Chelm
Chelmianka Chelm1-3Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmianka Chelm (rating 1609 vs 1480).
H2H favours Podlasie Biala Podlaska: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmianka Chelm	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.3	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	6.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.83

Diff.: 1 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:14

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.34 → 1.34	Pinn 1.34
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.50
2	6.24 → 6.24	Pinn 6.24

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +63’	1.34	4.50	6.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmianka Chelm 2–1–3 Podlasie Biala Podlaska

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/11/25 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	1-0 HT 0-0	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0-3 HT 0-1	Chelmianka Chelm
14/03/25 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	1-1 HT 0-0	Chelmianka Chelm
21/08/24 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	0-1 HT 0-0	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
01/06/24 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	3-1 HT 2-1	Chelmianka Chelm
12/11/23 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	1-3 HT 0-2	Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
6	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmianka Chelm	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
KSZO Ostrowiec	0-0 D	0-1 L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1-1 D	0-2 L
Wisla Krakow II	2-0 W	2-3 L
Wieczysta Krakow II	1-0 W	2-1 W
Wisloka Debica	2-1 W	0-1 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmianka Chelm (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmianka Chelm

WWWWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
29/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

Podlasie Biala Podlaska

LLDWWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	3	9	W
06/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
28/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
02/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmianka Chelm vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmianka Chelm win (66%). Probabilities: Chelmianka Chelm 66%, draw 23%, Podlasie Biala Podlaska 11%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmianka Chelm vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Chelmianka Chelm 1.88 · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 0.65), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmianka Chelm vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.