Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Flota Swinoujscie vs Unia Swarzedz

Team pages: Flota Swinoujscie · Unia Swarzedz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Flota Swinoujscie1.58

Unia Swarzedz1.64

1X2

36% 25% 39%

Flota Swinoujscie Draw Unia Swarzedz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Flota Swinoujscie 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDLWDL

Unia Swarzedz 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLDLL

Head-to-head

Flota Swinoujscie 1–1–4 Unia Swarzedz (6 last)

Flota Swinoujscie2-2Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz0-1Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie2-3Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz4-1Flota Swinoujscie
Unia Swarzedz4-0Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie2-4Unia Swarzedz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flota Swinoujscie 1509 · Unia Swarzedz 1467

	Flota Swinoujscie	Draw	Unia Swarzedz
Our model	36%	25%	38%
Market	37%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flota Swinoujscie (rating 1509 vs 1467).
H2H favours Unia Swarzedz: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flota Swinoujscie	Unia Swarzedz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2.4 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.70

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.72 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.55 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:18 +4’	2.20	3.70	2.55
05:47 +4’	2.45▲	3.70	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +99’	2.72	3.50	2.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Flota Swinoujscie 1–1–4 Unia Swarzedz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-2 HT 0-1	Unia Swarzedz
04/10/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	0-1 HT 0-0	Flota Swinoujscie
19/04/25 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-3 HT 1-1	Unia Swarzedz
20/09/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	4-1 HT 2-0	Flota Swinoujscie
18/05/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	4-0 HT 1-0	Flota Swinoujscie
28/10/23 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-4 HT 2-1	Unia Swarzedz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
6	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Flota Swinoujscie	Unia Swarzedz
Grom Nowy Staw	0-5 L	3-2 W
Lipno Steszew	3-1 W	3-4 L
KKS 1925 Kalisz	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-5	0-5	4	5	L
12/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
15/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	1	4	L

Unia Swarzedz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
11/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	6	5	L
04/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
28/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
23/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
09/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
01/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
30/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flota Swinoujscie vs Unia Swarzedz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Unia Swarzedz win (39%). Probabilities: Flota Swinoujscie 36%, draw 25%, Unia Swarzedz 39%.

How many goals are expected in Flota Swinoujscie vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Flota Swinoujscie 1.58 · Unia Swarzedz 1.64), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Flota Swinoujscie vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.