Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Team pages: Star Starachowice · Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Star Starachowice1.56

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1.41

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Star Starachowice Draw Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Star Starachowice 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLWDLDLD

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLWWDW

Head-to-head

Star Starachowice 2–2–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg (6 last)

Star Starachowice2-0Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg2-2Star Starachowice
Siarka Tarnobrzeg2-2Star Starachowice
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1-2Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice0-3Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg4-1Star Starachowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Star Starachowice 1464 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1512

	Star Starachowice	Draw	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Siarka Tarnobrzeg (rating 1464 vs 1512).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Star Starachowice	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:21 +6’	2.20	3.60	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Star Starachowice 2–2–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	2-0 HT 1-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
28/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2-2 HT 1-2	Star Starachowice
27/08/25 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2-2 HT 0-1	Star Starachowice
17/05/25 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1-2 HT 1-0	Star Starachowice
18/10/24 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	0-3 HT 0-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
25/09/24 Poland Cup	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4-1 HT 2-1	Star Starachowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Star Starachowice	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Wieczysta Krakow II	0-0 D	2-0 W
Wisloka Debica	2-3 L	1-0 W
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-0 D	0-2 L
JKS Jaroslaw	0-3 L	1-3 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	1-1 D	4-1 W
Czarni Polaniec	2-0 W	0-1 L
Hetman Zamosc	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Siarka Tarnobrzeg (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Star Starachowice

LLDLWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
22/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
09/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
01/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L
29/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	8	3	L

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

LDLWLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
19/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
15/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	4-1	–	–	W
08/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
02/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	4-3	5-6	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Star Starachowice win (40%). Probabilities: Star Starachowice 40%, draw 26%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34%.

How many goals are expected in Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Star Starachowice 1.56 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.