Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Olimpia Elblag vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Team pages: Olimpia Elblag · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Olimpia Elblag1.81

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.71

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Olimpia Elblag Draw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Elblag 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDLLWL

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Olimpia Elblag 0–1–1 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (2 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki0-0Olimpia Elblag
Olimpia Elblag2-5Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Elblag 1463 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1483

	Olimpia Elblag	Draw	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Elblag	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.70

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:31 +20’	2.25	3.70	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Elblag 0–1–1 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	0-0 HT 0-0	Olimpia Elblag
15/11/25 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Elblag	2-5 HT 1-3	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Elblag	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
KTS Weszlo	1-2 L	1-2 L
Wisla Plock II	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpia Elblag

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
12/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
29/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	7	3	L
22/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
19/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
07/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	5	4	W
31/07	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
30/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

DLLWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	11	7	L
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
31/07	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
30/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Elblag vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Elblag win (40%). Probabilities: Olimpia Elblag 40%, draw 24%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 36%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Elblag vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Olimpia Elblag 1.81 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.71), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Elblag vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.