Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lipno Steszew

Team pages: Victoria Wrzesnia · Lipno Steszew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Victoria Wrzesnia1.69

Lipno Steszew1.48

1X2

42% 26% 33%

Victoria Wrzesnia Draw Lipno Steszew

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Wrzesnia 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLDDD

Lipno Steszew 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Victoria Wrzesnia 0–4 Lipno Steszew (4 last)

Victoria Wrzesnia1-3Lipno Steszew
Lipno Steszew1-0Victoria Wrzesnia
Victoria Wrzesnia0-5Lipno Steszew
Victoria Wrzesnia1-2Lipno Steszew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Wrzesnia 1437 · Lipno Steszew 1439

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Draw	Lipno Steszew
Our model	42%	26%	33%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lipno Steszew: 4-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Lipno Steszew
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.8	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	3.10 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:18 +4’	1.95	3.60	3.10
05:49 +2’	2.15▲	3.50▼	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +99’	2.15	3.67	2.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Wrzesnia 0–0–4 Lipno Steszew

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Poland III Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	1-3 HT 1-1	Lipno Steszew
08/11/25 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	1-0 HT 1-0	Victoria Wrzesnia
08/03/25 Poland IV Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	0-5 HT 0-1	Lipno Steszew
19/06/24 Poland IV Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	1-2 HT 0-0	Lipno Steszew

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
6	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Wrzesnia	Lipno Steszew
Baltyk Koszalin	0-2 L	2-1 W
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-0 W	1-4 L
Flota Swinoujscie	0-5 L	1-3 L
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	1-2 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	0-1 L	2-3 L
Lech Poznan II	2-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Lipno Steszew (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victoria Wrzesnia

WLLLLWLDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
14/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
07/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
30/05	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W

Lipno Steszew

WDLLLLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
12/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
05/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
28/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
22/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
08/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
01/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lipno Steszew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Victoria Wrzesnia win (42%). Probabilities: Victoria Wrzesnia 42%, draw 26%, Lipno Steszew 33%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lipno Steszew?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Victoria Wrzesnia 1.69 · Lipno Steszew 1.48), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lipno Steszew?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.