Football · Poland III Liga · 25/09, 16:00

Prediction: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza

Team pages: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki · LKS Lomza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki2.03

LKS Lomza1.12

1X2

58% 22% 20%

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Draw LKS Lomza

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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LKS Lomza 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 3–1–2 LKS Lomza (6 last)

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki3-2LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza3-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1-3LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza1-1MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki4-3LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza2-3MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1497 · LKS Lomza 1419

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Draw	LKS Lomza
Our model	57%	23%	19%
Market	59%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (rating 1497 vs 1419).
H2H favours MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	LKS Lomza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 6.8	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +4’	1.53	4.33	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 3–1–2 LKS Lomza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	3-2 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
25/10/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	3-0 HT 2-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
01/03/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-3 HT 1-0	LKS Lomza
10/08/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	1-1 HT 1-1	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
31/05/24 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	4-3 HT 1-3	LKS Lomza
11/11/23 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-3 HT 1-1	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	LKS Lomza
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	2-5 L
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Pelikan Lowicz	1-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
29/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	3-0	4-0	15	2	W
01/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
30/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	6	3	L

LKS Lomza

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
30/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-4	6	3	L
22/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
14/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-4	2-5	4	1	L
08/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
03/06	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki win (58%). Probabilities: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 58%, draw 22%, LKS Lomza 20%.

How many goals are expected in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza?

The model expects 3.15 goals (MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 2.03 · LKS Lomza 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.