Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 16:00

Prediction: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza

Team pages: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki · LKS Lomza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.41

LKS Lomza1.58

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Draw LKS Lomza

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLDLL

LKS Lomza 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1–4–1 LKS Lomza (6 last)

LKS Lomza1-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-1LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza6-0Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki4-4LKS Lomza
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-1LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza1-2Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1461 · LKS Lomza 1507

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Draw	LKS Lomza
Our model	33%	26%	40%
Market	34%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LKS Lomza (rating 1461 vs 1507).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	LKS Lomza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.2	3.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.75

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.75 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	2.15 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +2’	2.60	3.75	2.15
18:47 +6’	2.05▼	3.80▲	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1–4–1 LKS Lomza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	1-1 HT 0-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
27/09/25 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-1 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
12/04/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	6-0 HT 2-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
14/09/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	4-4 HT 1-1	LKS Lomza
09/03/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-1 HT 1-0	LKS Lomza
19/08/23 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	1-2 HT 0-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	LKS Lomza
KTS Weszlo	1-2 L	0-1 L
Mlawianka Mlawa	1-3 L	2-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2-0 W	2-3 L
CK Troszyn	1-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: LKS Lomza (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

DWLDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
31/07	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
30/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
17/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
09/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
02/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	8	1	L
25/04	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	5	W
18/04	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	8	3	D

LKS Lomza

WWLWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
26/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
03/06	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
13/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-3	11	2	L
10/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
03/05	Legia Warsaw II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LKS Lomza win (41%). Probabilities: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 34%, draw 25%, LKS Lomza 41%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.41 · LKS Lomza 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.