Football · Poland III Liga · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn

Team pages: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki · CK Troszyn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki2.52

CK Troszyn1.35

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Draw CK Troszyn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLWWWD

CK Troszyn 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLLDD

Head-to-head

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 0–2 CK Troszyn (2 last)

CK Troszyn4-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-2CK Troszyn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1498 · CK Troszyn 1445

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Draw	CK Troszyn
Our model	62%	19%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (rating 1498 vs 1445).
H2H favours CK Troszyn: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	CK Troszyn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:36 +27’	1.45	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 0–0–2 CK Troszyn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Poland III Liga	CK Troszyn	4-1 HT 1-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
24/10/25 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-2 HT 1-0	CK Troszyn

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
12	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	CK Troszyn
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-1 D	1-0 W
LKS Lomza	5-2 W	0-2 L
KTS Weszlo	1-2 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CK Troszyn (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

LWLDLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
31/07	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
30/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
17/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L

CK Troszyn

WWLLLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
23/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	9	2	L
14/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-4	1-4	1	1	L
02/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	4	6	L
30/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
17/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki win (62%). Probabilities: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 62%, draw 20%, CK Troszyn 18%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2.52 · CK Troszyn 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs CK Troszyn?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.