Football · Poland III Liga · 11/09, 16:30

Prediction: Zabkovia Zabki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Team pages: Zabkovia Zabki · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Zabkovia Zabki1.92

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.53

1X2

46% 23% 30%

Zabkovia Zabki Draw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Zabkovia Zabki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLDWWL

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Zabkovia Zabki 1–1 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (2 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki2-1Zabkovia Zabki
Zabkovia Zabki2-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zabkovia Zabki 1512 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1500

	Zabkovia Zabki	Draw	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Our model	46%	24%	30%
Market	47%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zabkovia Zabki	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.90

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.75 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.01 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:35 +6’	2.00	3.90	2.75
12:35 +6’	1.90▼	3.90	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:49 +62’	1.83	3.73	3.23
08:06 +3’	1.90▲	3.73	3.02▼
10:08 +6’	1.85▼	3.92▲	2.98▼
12:40	1.86▲	3.90▼	3.01▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zabkovia Zabki 1–0–1 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 HT 0-0	Zabkovia Zabki
04/10/25 Poland III Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	2-1 HT 1-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	7	7	0	0	13	1	21
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	7	4	3	0	13	6	15
3	Czarni Polaniec	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
4	JKS Jaroslaw	7	4	1	2	18	10	13
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	7	4	1	2	10	6	13
6	Wisla Krakow II	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
8	Wisloka Debica	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
9	Hetman Zamosc	7	2	3	2	11	10	9
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	7	2	2	3	5	6	8
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	7	2	2	3	11	15	8
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	7	2	2	3	10	14	8
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	7	1	4	2	6	7	7
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
15	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
16	Moravia Morawica	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
17	Korona Kielce II	7	1	1	5	18	23	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	7	1	1	5	6	12	4

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zabkovia Zabki

WDLLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
22/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	4-0	12	2	W
19/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
14/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	1	1	L
08/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	4	7	L
30/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
16/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	3-1	6-2	–	–	W

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

WLDLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
31/07	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
30/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
17/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zabkovia Zabki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zabkovia Zabki win (46%). Probabilities: Zabkovia Zabki 46%, draw 23%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 30%.

How many goals are expected in Zabkovia Zabki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Zabkovia Zabki 1.92 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zabkovia Zabki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.