Football · Poland III Liga · 18/09, 16:30

Prediction: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Team pages: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.72

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.54

1X2

42% 25% 34%

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Draw MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2–3–1 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (6 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki2-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki2-2Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki3-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki3-3MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1487 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1461

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Draw	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	4.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.75

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +9’	2.15	3.75	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2–3–1 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-0 HT 1-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
31/10/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-1 HT 1-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
15/03/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2-2 HT 1-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
21/08/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-0 HT 1-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
10/05/24 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	3-1 HT 2-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
15/10/23 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	3-3 HT 1-2	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
4	Czarni Polaniec	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
7	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
10	Wisloka Debica	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
17	Moravia Morawica	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Wisla Plock II	1-2 L	2-3 L
KTS Weszlo	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
31/07	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
30/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	7	6	L

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
29/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	3-0	4-0	15	2	W
01/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
30/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
23/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki win (42%). Probabilities: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 42%, draw 25%, MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 34%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.72 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.54), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.