Football · Poland III Liga · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs MKS Kluczbork

Team pages: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj · MKS Kluczbork

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj1.43

MKS Kluczbork1.31

1X2

39% 27% 34%

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Draw MKS Kluczbork

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLLLWD

MKS Kluczbork 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1–2–3 MKS Kluczbork (6 last)

MKS Kluczbork3-0LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj2-1MKS Kluczbork
MKS Kluczbork2-0LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj0-0MKS Kluczbork
MKS Kluczbork2-2LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj1-2MKS Kluczbork

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1468 · MKS Kluczbork 1483

	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Draw	MKS Kluczbork
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	40%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours MKS Kluczbork: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	MKS Kluczbork
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +11’	2.25	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1–2–3 MKS Kluczbork

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Poland III Liga	MKS Kluczbork	3-0 HT 0-0	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
24/10/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 HT 1-1	MKS Kluczbork
25/05/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Kluczbork	2-0 HT 0-0	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
02/11/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-0 HT 0-0	MKS Kluczbork
08/06/24 Poland III Liga	MKS Kluczbork	2-2 HT 0-1	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
18/11/23 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	1-2 HT 0-0	MKS Kluczbork

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
12	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	MKS Kluczbork
Sleza Wroclaw	0-2 L	6-0 W
Stal Brzeg	1-1 D	1-0 W
Zaglebie Lubin II	3-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: MKS Kluczbork (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

LDLWDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
22/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
31/07	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
30/05	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	6	4	W
22/05	Skra Czestochowa Poland III Liga	0-4	0-4	4	6	L
16/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
13/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L

MKS Kluczbork

WLLWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
19/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
08/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	9	W
01/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
29/05	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	2-0	6-0	7	3	W
23/05	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
13/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs MKS Kluczbork?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj win (39%). Probabilities: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 39%, draw 27%, MKS Kluczbork 34%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model expects 2.74 goals (LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1.43 · MKS Kluczbork 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.