Football · Poland III Liga · 19/09, 12:00

Prediction: Sparta Katowice vs MKS Kluczbork

Team pages: Sparta Katowice · MKS Kluczbork

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Sparta Katowice1.79

MKS Kluczbork1.01

1X2

55% 24% 20%

Sparta Katowice Draw MKS Kluczbork

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Katowice 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWWWD

MKS Kluczbork 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Sparta Katowice 1–1 MKS Kluczbork (2 last)

MKS Kluczbork3-1Sparta Katowice
Sparta Katowice1-0MKS Kluczbork

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Katowice 1563 · MKS Kluczbork 1492

	Sparta Katowice	Draw	MKS Kluczbork
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1563 vs 1492).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Katowice	MKS Kluczbork
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.1	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +4’	1.61	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Katowice 1–0–1 MKS Kluczbork

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Poland III Liga	MKS Kluczbork	3-1 HT 2-1	Sparta Katowice
20/09/25 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	1-0 HT 1-0	MKS Kluczbork

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Czarni Polaniec	8	6	0	2	14	9	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Wisloka Debica	8	4	1	3	11	11	13
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
8	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
9	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	8	1	3	4	7	14	6
17	Moravia Morawica	8	2	0	6	8	16	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Katowice	MKS Kluczbork
Sleza Wroclaw	3-0 W	3-2 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 W	0-3 L
Stal Brzeg	1-1 D	1-0 W
KS Stilon Gorzow	2-1 W	1-0 W
Zaglebie Lubin II	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Katowice (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Katowice

WWLWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
29/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
22/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
19/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
14/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	8	W
01/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
24/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
16/05	Skra Czestochowa Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

MKS Kluczbork

LWLWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
05/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	5	8	L
28/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
19/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
08/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	9	W
01/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
29/05	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	2-0	6-0	7	3	W
23/05	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Katowice vs MKS Kluczbork?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Katowice win (55%). Probabilities: Sparta Katowice 55%, draw 24%, MKS Kluczbork 20%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Katowice vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Sparta Katowice 1.79 · MKS Kluczbork 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Katowice vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.