Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs MKS Kluczbork

Team pages: Zaglebie Sosnowiec · MKS Kluczbork

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.87

MKS Kluczbork1.07

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec Draw MKS Kluczbork

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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MKS Kluczbork 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–2–2 MKS Kluczbork (6 last)

MKS Kluczbork4-1Zaglebie Sosnowiec
MKS Kluczbork0-4Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec4-0MKS Kluczbork
Zaglebie Sosnowiec0-2MKS Kluczbork
MKS Kluczbork1-1Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec1-1MKS Kluczbork

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1540 · MKS Kluczbork 1461

	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	Draw	MKS Kluczbork
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zaglebie Sosnowiec (rating 1540 vs 1461).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	MKS Kluczbork
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	6.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.44 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +7’	1.85	3.50	3.40
05:56 +3’	1.80▼	3.60▲	3.60▲
10:45 +10’	1.61▼	3.75▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:16	1.59	3.70	4.39
08:42 +41’	1.59	3.67▼	4.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–2–2 MKS Kluczbork

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/07/26 Europe Friendlies	MKS Kluczbork	4-1 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
08/04/17 Poland I Liga	MKS Kluczbork	0-4 HT 0-4	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
10/09/16 Poland I Liga	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	4-0 HT 1-0	MKS Kluczbork
20/03/16 Poland I Liga	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	0-2 HT 0-1	MKS Kluczbork
26/08/15 Poland I Liga	MKS Kluczbork	1-1 HT 0-1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
20/05/15 Poland II Liga	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1-1 HT 0-0	MKS Kluczbork

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	MKS Kluczbork
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	1-0 W	0-1 L
Gornik Polkowice	2-1 W	2-1 W
Polonia Nysa	2-1 W	1-3 L
Barycz Sulow	0-1 L	0-2 L
Sparta Katowice	0-1 L	1-2 L
Sleza Wroclaw	3-1 W	3-2 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Sosnowiec (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
18/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
16/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
09/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
01/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

MKS Kluczbork

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	3	9	L
12/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
05/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	5	8	L
28/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
19/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
08/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	9	W
01/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs MKS Kluczbork?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Sosnowiec win (55%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 55%, draw 24%, MKS Kluczbork 21%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1.87 · MKS Kluczbork 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.