Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 17:00

Prediction: Gornik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica II

Team pages: Gornik Polkowice · Miedz Legnica II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Gornik Polkowice2.07

Miedz Legnica II1.38

1X2

53% 23% 25%

Gornik Polkowice Draw Miedz Legnica II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Polkowice 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Miedz Legnica II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gornik Polkowice 3–1–2 Miedz Legnica II (6 last)

Gornik Polkowice3-3Miedz Legnica II
Miedz Legnica II0-1Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice0-2Miedz Legnica II
Miedz Legnica II6-2Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice3-1Miedz Legnica II
Gornik Polkowice2-1Miedz Legnica II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Polkowice 1490 · Miedz Legnica II 1505

	Gornik Polkowice	Draw	Miedz Legnica II
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	53%	22%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gornik Polkowice: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Polkowice	Miedz Legnica II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	3.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +35’	1.70	4.00	3.60
18:53 +1’	1.67▼	4.00	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Polkowice 3–1–2 Miedz Legnica II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	3-3 HT 1-0	Miedz Legnica II
05/09/25 Poland III Liga	Miedz Legnica II	0-1 HT 0-0	Gornik Polkowice
02/05/25 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	0-2 HT 0-2	Miedz Legnica II
04/10/24 Poland III Liga	Miedz Legnica II	6-2 HT 3-1	Gornik Polkowice
16/01/21 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	3-1 HT 1-0	Miedz Legnica II
17/03/19 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	2-1 HT 2-0	Miedz Legnica II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Polkowice	Miedz Legnica II
Warta Gorzow	0-1 L	2-0 W
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-3 L	1-1 D
Lechia Zielona Góra	1-2 L	0-2 L
Gornik Zabrze II	0-6 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Miedz Legnica II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gornik Polkowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L
31/07	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	2-1	5-4	8	2	W
18/07	Warta Poznan Europe Friendlies	3-2	4-3	3	5	W
08/07	Warta Gorzow Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
04/07	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-3	3	0	L
09/06	Sokol Kleczew Poland League II Play-Offs	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
06/06	Sokol Kleczew Poland League II Play-Offs	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
03/06	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
22/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-6	3	2	L

Miedz Legnica II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
01/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
22/05	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	6	8	W
16/05	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	5-0	6-0	4	3	W
13/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/05	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
01/05	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
25/04	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Polkowice win (53%). Probabilities: Gornik Polkowice 53%, draw 23%, Miedz Legnica II 25%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica II?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Gornik Polkowice 2.07 · Miedz Legnica II 1.38), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.