Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: Miedz Legnica II vs Sparta Katowice

Team pages: Miedz Legnica II · Sparta Katowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Miedz Legnica II1.58

Sparta Katowice1.74

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Miedz Legnica II Draw Sparta Katowice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Miedz Legnica II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLDWWW

Sparta Katowice 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Miedz Legnica II 0–1–1 Sparta Katowice (2 last)

Sparta Katowice2-2Miedz Legnica II
Miedz Legnica II2-3Sparta Katowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Miedz Legnica II 1516 · Sparta Katowice 1568

	Miedz Legnica II	Draw	Sparta Katowice
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1516 vs 1568).
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miedz Legnica II	Sparta Katowice
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.9	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.5	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.3	3.8 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:01 +20’	2.63	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Miedz Legnica II 0–1–1 Sparta Katowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	2-2 HT 0-0	Miedz Legnica II
22/08/25 Poland III Liga	Miedz Legnica II	2-3 HT 2-1	Sparta Katowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miedz Legnica II	Sparta Katowice
Sleza Wroclaw	5-3 W	3-0 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	5-0 W	2-1 W
Stal Brzeg	4-2 W	1-1 D
KS Stilon Gorzow	2-2 D	2-1 W
Zaglebie Lubin II	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Miedz Legnica II

WLLDLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	2-3	5-3	10	6	W
12/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	3-0	5-0	5	2	W
05/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	3-2	4-2	–	–	W
28/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
22/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	3	7	L
19/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
14/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
01/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	7	W

Sparta Katowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
13/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
29/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
22/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
19/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
14/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	8	W
01/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
24/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miedz Legnica II vs Sparta Katowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sparta Katowice win (41%). Probabilities: Miedz Legnica II 34%, draw 25%, Sparta Katowice 41%.

How many goals are expected in Miedz Legnica II vs Sparta Katowice?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Miedz Legnica II 1.58 · Sparta Katowice 1.74), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica II vs Sparta Katowice?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.