Football · Poland III Liga · 02/10, 12:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin II vs Gornik Polkowice

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin II · Gornik Polkowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Zaglebie Lubin II1.93

Gornik Polkowice1.29

1X2

52% 24% 25%

Zaglebie Lubin II Draw Gornik Polkowice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin II 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWDWD

Gornik Polkowice 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWWLLL

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin II 0–1–5 Gornik Polkowice (6 last)

Zaglebie Lubin II0-2Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice3-1Zaglebie Lubin II
Gornik Polkowice2-0Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II2-3Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice4-2Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II1-1Gornik Polkowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin II 1560 · Gornik Polkowice 1493

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Draw	Gornik Polkowice
Our model	51%	24%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zaglebie Lubin II (rating 1560 vs 1493).
H2H favours Gornik Polkowice: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Gornik Polkowice
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	3.6 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +1’	1.73	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin II 0–1–5 Gornik Polkowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	0-2 HT 0-0	Gornik Polkowice
22/08/25 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	3-1 HT 1-1	Zaglebie Lubin II
16/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	2-0 HT 1-0	Zaglebie Lubin II
06/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	2-3 HT 0-2	Gornik Polkowice
13/01/24 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	4-2 HT 2-1	Zaglebie Lubin II
20/05/23 Poland II Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	1-1 HT 0-1	Gornik Polkowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
14	Star Starachowice	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin II	Gornik Polkowice
Barycz Sulow	3-3 D	1-2 L
Carina Gubin	3-0 W	2-1 W
ROW 1964 Rybnik	2-2 D	3-1 W
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-0 W	2-1 W
Warta Gorzow	2-0 W	0-0 D
Miedz Legnica II	3-2 W	3-3 D
MKS Kluczbork	3-1 W	1-2 L
Rakow Czestochowa II	2-2 D	5-4 W
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Lubin II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin II

WDDWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-3	4	3	D
18/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
12/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
05/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
29/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
19/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	6	7	D
08/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Gornik Polkowice

WLDDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
18/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
06/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
23/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
19/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
14/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-3	6	3	D
08/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L
31/07	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	2-1	5-4	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Gornik Polkowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin II win (52%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin II 52%, draw 24%, Gornik Polkowice 25%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Gornik Polkowice?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Zaglebie Lubin II 1.93 · Gornik Polkowice 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Gornik Polkowice?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.