Football · Poland III Liga · 09/10, 15:30

Prediction: Gornik Polkowice vs KS Stilon Gorzow

Team pages: Gornik Polkowice · KS Stilon Gorzow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Gornik Polkowice1.93

KS Stilon Gorzow1.15

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Gornik Polkowice Draw KS Stilon Gorzow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Polkowice 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWLLLD

KS Stilon Gorzow 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDLDWW

Head-to-head

Gornik Polkowice 4–1–1 KS Stilon Gorzow (6 last)

Gornik Polkowice3-2KS Stilon Gorzow
KS Stilon Gorzow1-2Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice0-0KS Stilon Gorzow
KS Stilon Gorzow3-4Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice1-2KS Stilon Gorzow
Gornik Polkowice3-2KS Stilon Gorzow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Polkowice 1480 · KS Stilon Gorzow 1502

	Gornik Polkowice	Draw	KS Stilon Gorzow
Our model	54%	24%	21%
Market	55%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gornik Polkowice: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Polkowice	KS Stilon Gorzow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:35 +30’	1.61	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Polkowice 4–1–1 KS Stilon Gorzow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	3-2 HT 1-1	KS Stilon Gorzow
15/03/25 Poland III Liga	KS Stilon Gorzow	1-2 HT 0-1	Gornik Polkowice
21/08/24 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	0-0 HT 0-0	KS Stilon Gorzow
26/05/24 Poland III Liga	KS Stilon Gorzow	3-4 HT 1-1	Gornik Polkowice
17/02/24 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	1-2 HT 1-1	KS Stilon Gorzow
04/11/23 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	3-2 HT 1-1	KS Stilon Gorzow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Polkowice	KS Stilon Gorzow
Barycz Sulow	1-2 L	2-1 W
Carina Gubin	2-1 W	3-1 W
ROW 1964 Rybnik	3-1 W	0-0 D
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	2-1 W	2-4 L
Warta Gorzow	0-0 D	1-1 D
Miedz Legnica II	3-3 D	2-2 D
MKS Kluczbork	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gornik Polkowice

LDDWWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
26/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
18/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
06/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
23/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
19/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
14/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-3	6	3	D
08/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L

KS Stilon Gorzow

LDWLDDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	1-2	2-4	4	2	L
05/09	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
22/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
15/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Polkowice vs KS Stilon Gorzow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Polkowice win (55%). Probabilities: Gornik Polkowice 55%, draw 23%, KS Stilon Gorzow 22%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Polkowice vs KS Stilon Gorzow?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Gornik Polkowice 1.93 · KS Stilon Gorzow 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Polkowice vs KS Stilon Gorzow?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.