Football · Poland III Liga · 19/09, 12:00

Prediction: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Warta Gorzow

Team pages: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj · Warta Gorzow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj1.32

Warta Gorzow1.27

1X2

38% 27% 35%

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Draw Warta Gorzow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLWDWL

Warta Gorzow 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWLDW

Head-to-head

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 5–1 Warta Gorzow (6 last)

Warta Gorzow1-2LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj2-1Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow0-2LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj2-0Warta Gorzow
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj3-2Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow3-2LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1486 · Warta Gorzow 1506

	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Draw	Warta Gorzow
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Warta Gorzow
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +3’	2.35	3.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 5–0–1 Warta Gorzow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-2 HT 0-0	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
04/10/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 HT 2-0	Warta Gorzow
18/04/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	0-2 HT 0-1	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
21/09/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-0 HT 0-0	Warta Gorzow
02/03/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	3-2 HT 1-1	Warta Gorzow
12/08/23 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	3-2 HT 2-1	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Czarni Polaniec	8	6	0	2	14	9	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Wisloka Debica	8	4	1	3	11	11	13
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
8	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
9	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	8	1	3	4	7	14	6
17	Moravia Morawica	8	2	0	6	8	16	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Warta Gorzow
MKS Kluczbork	3-0 W	1-0 W
Stal Brzeg	1-1 D	1-0 W
Zaglebie Lubin II	3-2 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

LWDLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-3	0-5	10	2	L
05/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	1	8	W
29/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
22/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
31/07	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
30/05	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	6	4	W
22/05	Skra Czestochowa Poland III Liga	0-4	0-4	4	6	L

Warta Gorzow

WWLWDDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
22/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
01/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	7	5	L
30/05	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Warta Gorzow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj win (38%). Probabilities: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 38%, draw 27%, Warta Gorzow 35%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Warta Gorzow?

The model expects 2.58 goals (LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1.32 · Warta Gorzow 1.27), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Warta Gorzow?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.