Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 14:00

Prediction: Warta Gorzow vs Sleza Wroclaw

Team pages: Warta Gorzow · Sleza Wroclaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Warta Gorzow2.08

Sleza Wroclaw1.26

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Warta Gorzow Draw Sleza Wroclaw

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Gorzow 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLDWL

Sleza Wroclaw 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Warta Gorzow 2–3–1 Sleza Wroclaw (6 last)

Sleza Wroclaw0-0Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow4-1Sleza Wroclaw
Sleza Wroclaw0-0Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow1-1Sleza Wroclaw
Warta Gorzow5-0Sleza Wroclaw
Sleza Wroclaw4-1Warta Gorzow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Gorzow 1498 · Sleza Wroclaw 1436

	Warta Gorzow	Draw	Sleza Wroclaw
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Gorzow (rating 1498 vs 1436).
H2H favours Warta Gorzow: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Gorzow	Sleza Wroclaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.4 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	1.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:31 +13’	1.61	3.90	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Gorzow 2–3–1 Sleza Wroclaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	0-0 HT 0-0	Warta Gorzow
27/09/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	4-1 HT 3-0	Sleza Wroclaw
29/03/25 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	0-0 HT 0-0	Warta Gorzow
31/08/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-1 HT 0-0	Sleza Wroclaw
01/06/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	5-0 HT 2-0	Sleza Wroclaw
11/11/23 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	4-1 HT 2-1	Warta Gorzow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Gorzow	Sleza Wroclaw
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	1-4 L	2-0 W
Stal Brzeg	1-0 W	1-5 L
KS Stilon Gorzow	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Gorzow (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Gorzow

WLWDDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
12/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
22/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
01/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	7	5	L
30/05	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Sleza Wroclaw

LLLWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-2	3-5	5	6	L
12/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
29/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
19/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	0	2	L
15/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
07/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	1-5	2	5	L
01/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-2	0-6	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Gorzow vs Sleza Wroclaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Gorzow win (55%). Probabilities: Warta Gorzow 55%, draw 23%, Sleza Wroclaw 22%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Gorzow vs Sleza Wroclaw?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Warta Gorzow 2.08 · Sleza Wroclaw 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Gorzow vs Sleza Wroclaw?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.