Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 12:00

Prediction: Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzow

Team pages: Sparta Katowice · Warta Gorzow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Sparta Katowice2

Warta Gorzow1

1X2

60% 23% 18%

Sparta Katowice Draw Warta Gorzow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Katowice 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWDWW

Warta Gorzow 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLDWLD

Head-to-head

Sparta Katowice 1–1 Warta Gorzow (2 last)

Sparta Katowice3-4Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow0-2Sparta Katowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Katowice 1561 · Warta Gorzow 1502

	Sparta Katowice	Draw	Warta Gorzow
Our model	59%	23%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1561 vs 1502).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Katowice	Warta Gorzow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.2	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +5’	1.50	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Katowice 1–0–1 Warta Gorzow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	3-4 HT 1-1	Warta Gorzow
09/08/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	0-2 HT 0-2	Sparta Katowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Katowice	Warta Gorzow
Sleza Wroclaw	3-0 W	1-1 D
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 W	1-4 L
Stal Brzeg	1-1 D	1-0 W
KS Stilon Gorzow	2-1 W	1-1 D
Zaglebie Lubin II	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Katowice (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Katowice

LWDWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
13/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
29/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
22/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
19/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
14/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	8	W
01/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L

Warta Gorzow

LWDDWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
12/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
22/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
01/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Katowice win (60%). Probabilities: Sparta Katowice 60%, draw 23%, Warta Gorzow 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzow?

The model expects 3 goals (Sparta Katowice 2 · Warta Gorzow 1), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzow?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.