Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 17:00

Prediction: Carina Gubin vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Team pages: Carina Gubin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Carina Gubin1.63

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1.43

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Carina Gubin Draw Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Carina Gubin 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Carina Gubin 3–1–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (6 last)

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora3-2Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin1-2Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Carina Gubin3-0Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora0-1Carina Gubin
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora0-1Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin2-2Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carina Gubin 1491 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1573

	Carina Gubin	Draw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (rating 1491 vs 1573).
H2H favours Carina Gubin: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carina Gubin	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.8	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +6’	1.95	3.70	3.00
14:15 +2’	2.15▲	3.60▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carina Gubin 3–1–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	3-2 HT 1-2	Carina Gubin
23/08/25 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-2 HT 1-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
10/05/25 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	3-0 HT 2-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
13/10/24 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	0-1 HT 0-0	Carina Gubin
06/04/24 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	0-1 HT 0-1	Carina Gubin
12/09/23 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	2-2 HT 1-1	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carina Gubin	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Polonia Nysa	1-2 L	3-1 W
LZS Starowice Dolne	2-0 W	6-1 W
Zaglebie Lubin II	4-1 W	4-0 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 W	0-1 L
Gornik Polkowice	1-2 L	3-1 W
Slowianin Woliborz	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Carina Gubin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
01/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/05	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
09/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
25/04	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
14/04	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	5	4	L

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/07	Zaglebie Lubin II Europe Friendlies	3-0	4-0	3	1	W
04/07	Gornik Polkowice Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-1	5	0	W
30/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	4	3	L
17/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	2	5	W
13/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
08/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
01/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	4-0	6-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carina Gubin vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carina Gubin win (42%). Probabilities: Carina Gubin 42%, draw 25%, Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 33%.

How many goals are expected in Carina Gubin vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Carina Gubin 1.63 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1.43), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Carina Gubin vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.