Football · Poland III Liga · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: Gornik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin

Team pages: Gornik Polkowice · Carina Gubin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Gornik Polkowice2.18

Carina Gubin1.27

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Gornik Polkowice Draw Carina Gubin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Polkowice 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDDWW

Carina Gubin 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLDLLL

Head-to-head

Gornik Polkowice 4–1–1 Carina Gubin (6 last)

Carina Gubin1-2Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice2-2Carina Gubin
Gornik Polkowice2-1Carina Gubin
Gornik Polkowice2-1Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin0-1Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice1-4Carina Gubin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Polkowice 1500 · Carina Gubin 1455

	Gornik Polkowice	Draw	Carina Gubin
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gornik Polkowice (rating 1500 vs 1455).
H2H favours Gornik Polkowice: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Polkowice	Carina Gubin
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.2	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	1.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +29’	1.57	4.10	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Polkowice 4–1–1 Carina Gubin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-2 HT 0-1	Gornik Polkowice
04/10/25 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	2-2 HT 0-2	Carina Gubin
18/04/25 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	2-1 HT 1-0	Carina Gubin
07/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	2-1 HT 0-1	Carina Gubin
21/09/24 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	0-1 HT 0-1	Gornik Polkowice
20/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Polkowice	1-4 HT 0-3	Carina Gubin

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	7	1	4	2	6	7	7
11	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
13	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
16	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Polkowice	Carina Gubin
ROW 1964 Rybnik	3-1 W	0-4 L
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	2-1 W	1-1 D
Warta Gorzow	0-0 D	1-2 L
Miedz Legnica II	3-3 D	2-1 W
MKS Kluczbork	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gornik Polkowice (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gornik Polkowice

WLLWWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
23/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
19/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
14/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-3	6	3	D
08/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L
31/07	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	2-1	5-4	8	2	W
03/06	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
22/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-6	3	2	L
17/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	7	0	W

Carina Gubin

DWWLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
19/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	1	4	L
14/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
01/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/05	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
09/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Polkowice win (57%). Probabilities: Gornik Polkowice 57%, draw 22%, Carina Gubin 21%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Gornik Polkowice 2.18 · Carina Gubin 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.