Football · Poland III Liga · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin II · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Zaglebie Lubin II1.86

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1.23

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Zaglebie Lubin II Draw Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDDWWW

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWDWLD

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin II 2–2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (6 last)

Zaglebie Lubin II0-4Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Zaglebie Lubin II1-1Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora2-2Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II2-1Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Zaglebie Lubin II3-1Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Zaglebie Lubin II0-3Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin II 1506 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1548

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Draw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (rating 1506 vs 1548).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	2.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +16’	1.73	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin II 2–2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	0-4 HT 0-3	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
04/04/26 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	1-1 HT 0-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
12/09/25 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	2-2 HT 1-1	Zaglebie Lubin II
19/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	2-1 HT 1-1	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
08/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	3-1 HT 1-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
01/07/23 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	0-3 HT 0-1	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
12	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin II	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Polonia Nysa	2-2 D	3-1 W
Carina Gubin	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin II

LWLLWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
19/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	6	7	D
08/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
30/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	4	4	L
22/05	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	9	8	L
15/05	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	1	1	W
12/05	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	7	3	L

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

DWLWDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	7	1	L
19/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
14/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
30/05	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	4	3	L
17/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	2	5	W
13/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin II win (51%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin II 51%, draw 24%, Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 25%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Zaglebie Lubin II 1.86 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.