Football · Poland III Liga · 18/09, 12:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin II vs Carina Gubin

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin II · Carina Gubin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Zaglebie Lubin II2.17

Carina Gubin1.08

1X2

62% 21% 18%

Zaglebie Lubin II Draw Carina Gubin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWWWWD

Carina Gubin 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLLLD

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin II 3–1–2 Carina Gubin (6 last)

Zaglebie Lubin II1-4Carina Gubin
Zaglebie Lubin II4-1Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin1-0Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II2-2Carina Gubin
Zaglebie Lubin II2-0Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin0-2Zaglebie Lubin II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin II 1511 · Carina Gubin 1453

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Draw	Carina Gubin
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zaglebie Lubin II (rating 1511 vs 1453).
H2H favours Zaglebie Lubin II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Carina Gubin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	2.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +17’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin II 3–1–2 Carina Gubin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	1-4 HT 1-1	Carina Gubin
17/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	4-1 HT 2-0	Carina Gubin
24/10/25 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-0 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin II
12/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	2-2 HT 0-2	Carina Gubin
14/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin II	2-0 HT 1-0	Carina Gubin
21/05/22 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	0-2 HT 0-1	Zaglebie Lubin II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
4	Czarni Polaniec	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
7	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
10	Wisloka Debica	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
17	Moravia Morawica	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin II	Carina Gubin
ROW 1964 Rybnik	2-2 D	0-4 L
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-0 W	1-1 D
Warta Gorzow	2-0 W	1-2 L
Miedz Legnica II	3-2 W	2-1 W
Polonia Nysa	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Lubin II (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin II

LLWDDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
05/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
29/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
19/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	6	7	D
08/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
30/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	4	4	L
22/05	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	9	8	L

Carina Gubin

WLWLDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
28/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
19/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	1	4	L
14/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
01/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Carina Gubin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin II win (62%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin II 62%, draw 21%, Carina Gubin 18%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Carina Gubin?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Zaglebie Lubin II 2.17 · Carina Gubin 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Carina Gubin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.