Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Sleza Wroclaw vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Team pages: Sleza Wroclaw · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Sleza Wroclaw1.21

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1.62

1X2

28% 25% 46%

Sleza Wroclaw Draw Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sleza Wroclaw 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLLLD

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDLWLW

Head-to-head

Sleza Wroclaw 3–2–1 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (6 last)

Sleza Wroclaw1-0Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1-1Sleza Wroclaw
Sleza Wroclaw0-0Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Sleza Wroclaw2-1Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1-0Sleza Wroclaw
Sleza Wroclaw3-0Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sleza Wroclaw 1453 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1506

	Sleza Wroclaw	Draw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Our model	28%	27%	46%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (rating 1453 vs 1506).
H2H favours Sleza Wroclaw: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sleza Wroclaw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.6	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +10’	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sleza Wroclaw 3–2–1 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	1-0 HT 0-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
16/08/25 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-1 HT 1-0	Sleza Wroclaw
26/04/25 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	0-0 HT 0-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
25/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Sleza Wroclaw	2-1 HT 1-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
28/09/24 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-0 HT 1-0	Sleza Wroclaw
12/04/24 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	3-0 HT 3-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sleza Wroclaw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1-3 L	0-0 D
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-0 W	2-0 W
Stal Brzeg	1-5 L	0-1 L
KS Stilon Gorzow	1-3 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sleza Wroclaw

LLWLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
19/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-2	3-5	5	6	L
12/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
29/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
19/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	0	2	L
15/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
07/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	1-5	2	5	L
01/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

DWDWLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
19/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	10	2	W
05/09	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
29/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	7	1	L
19/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
14/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sleza Wroclaw vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Karkonosze Jelenia Gora win (46%). Probabilities: Sleza Wroclaw 28%, draw 25%, Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 46%.

How many goals are expected in Sleza Wroclaw vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Sleza Wroclaw 1.21 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1.62), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sleza Wroclaw vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.