Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: Tienen vs KFC Merelbeke

Team pages: Tienen · KFC Merelbeke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Tienen1.48

KFC Merelbeke1.5

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Tienen Draw KFC Merelbeke

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tienen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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KFC Merelbeke 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tienen 2–1–1 KFC Merelbeke (4 last)

Tienen2-0KFC Merelbeke
KFC Merelbeke2-1Tienen
KFC Merelbeke0-0Tienen
Tienen2-0KFC Merelbeke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tienen 1499 · KFC Merelbeke 1491

	Tienen	Draw	KFC Merelbeke
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tienen: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tienen	KFC Merelbeke
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.61
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:32 +3’	2.45	3.50	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +11’	2.14	3.61	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tienen 2–1–1 KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	2-0 HT 2-0	KFC Merelbeke
04/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	2-1 HT 0-0	Tienen
27/04/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	0-0 HT 0-0	Tienen
20/10/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	2-0 HT 1-0	KFC Merelbeke

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RWD Molenbeek	6	5	1	0	9	2	16
2	RFC Meux	6	5	0	1	14	4	15
3	Union Rochefortoise	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
4	Tubize	6	3	2	1	9	8	11
5	Union Saint Gilloise II	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
6	RAEC Mons	5	2	1	2	10	10	7
7	ROC Charleroi	6	2	1	3	8	15	7
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	6	1	3	2	4	5	6
9	RCS Onhaye	6	2	0	4	7	12	6
10	RSC Habay	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
11	Standard Liege II	5	1	1	3	5	3	4
12	FC Flenu	6	0	1	5	8	17	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tienen	KFC Merelbeke
Cercle Brugge Reserves	3-1 W	3-1 W
SK Roeselare	1-1 D	1-3 L
KRC Harelbeke	4-0 W	3-0 W
OH Leuven II	1-2 L	3-1 W
Dessel Sport	3-4 L	1-1 D
Hoogstraten VV	1-1 D	3-2 W
Belisia Bilzen SV	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tienen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
20/09	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-0	1	1	W
06/09	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-2	0	1	L
30/08	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-3	3-4	5	3	L
26/04	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
19/04	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
12/04	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
29/03	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
22/03	Diegem Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-1	3	2	W

KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
20/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
13/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
06/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
28/08	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
26/04	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
19/04	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
11/04	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-1	6	7	W
06/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
21/03	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tienen vs KFC Merelbeke?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KFC Merelbeke win (38%). Probabilities: Tienen 36%, draw 26%, KFC Merelbeke 38%.

How many goals are expected in Tienen vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Tienen 1.48 · KFC Merelbeke 1.5), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tienen vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.