Football · Wales Premier League · 26/09, 15:30

Prediction: Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County

Team pages: Colwyn Bay · Haverfordwest County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Colwyn Bay1.86

Haverfordwest County0.95

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Colwyn Bay Draw Haverfordwest County

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Colwyn Bay 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWLWWW

Haverfordwest County 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Colwyn Bay 1–1–4 Haverfordwest County (6 last)

Haverfordwest County1-0Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay3-0Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County3-1Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay0-0Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County5-0Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay1-2Haverfordwest County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colwyn Bay 1541 · Haverfordwest County 1477

	Colwyn Bay	Draw	Haverfordwest County
Our model	58%	25%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colwyn Bay (rating 1541 vs 1477).
H2H favours Haverfordwest County: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colwyn Bay	Haverfordwest County
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.2 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:08 +5’	1.55	3.70	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Colwyn Bay 1–1–4 Haverfordwest County

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-0 HT 0-0	Colwyn Bay
13/09/25 Wales Premier League	Colwyn Bay	3-0 HT 3-0	Haverfordwest County
13/04/24 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	3-1 HT 2-0	Colwyn Bay
02/03/24 Wales Premier League	Colwyn Bay	0-0 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County
04/11/23 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	5-0 HT 3-0	Colwyn Bay
02/09/23 Wales Premier League	Colwyn Bay	1-2 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	10	9	1	0	26	4	28
2	Penybont	10	7	3	0	20	8	24
3	Caernarfon Town	10	7	1	2	33	11	22
4	Connah's Quay	10	7	1	2	23	7	22
5	Barry Town	10	7	1	2	25	16	22
6	Colwyn Bay	10	6	1	3	20	14	19
7	Llandudno	10	5	1	4	18	14	16
8	Airbus UK	10	5	0	5	17	15	15
9	Cambrian United	10	4	3	3	17	20	15
10	Cardiff MU	9	4	2	3	19	11	14
11	Haverfordwest County	9	3	1	5	7	14	10
12	Briton Ferry	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
13	Trefelin BGC	10	0	3	7	4	24	3
14	Ammanford AFC	10	0	3	7	7	28	3
15	Flint Town Utd	10	0	2	8	8	24	2
16	Holywell Town	10	0	1	9	11	35	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colwyn Bay	Haverfordwest County
Holywell Town	5-0 W	1-0 W
Connah's Quay	2-1 W	1-1 D
Penybont	0-1 L	0-3 L
Llandudno	2-0 W	0-2 L
T.N.S.	1-5 L	0-2 L
Airbus UK	1-0 W	0-1 L
Trefelin BGC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Colwyn Bay (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Colwyn Bay

WDLWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	1-2	5-2	6	1	W
15/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	5-0	5-0	5	0	W
12/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
05/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
31/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-3	1-5	6	2	L
21/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
15/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
07/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	2-0	2-2	5	7	D
31/07	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	4	W

Haverfordwest County

LLLLLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
04/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
28/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	0	8	L
21/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
14/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
07/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
01/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
02/05	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colwyn Bay win (58%). Probabilities: Colwyn Bay 58%, draw 24%, Haverfordwest County 18%.

How many goals are expected in Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Colwyn Bay 1.86 · Haverfordwest County 0.95), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.