Football · Wales Premier League · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MU

Team pages: Colwyn Bay · Cardiff MU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Colwyn Bay1.88

Cardiff MU0.96

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Colwyn Bay Draw Cardiff MU

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Colwyn Bay 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWWLW

Cardiff MU 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLDWWL

Head-to-head

Colwyn Bay 2–2–2 Cardiff MU (6 last)

Colwyn Bay0-0Cardiff MU
Cardiff MU1-4Colwyn Bay
Cardiff MU3-2Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay2-2Cardiff MU
Cardiff MU1-0Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay1-0Cardiff MU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colwyn Bay 1550 · Cardiff MU 1523

	Colwyn Bay	Draw	Cardiff MU
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colwyn Bay	Cardiff MU
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +2’	1.55	3.80	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Colwyn Bay 2–2–2 Cardiff MU

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/25 Wales Premier League	Colwyn Bay	0-0 HT 0-0	Cardiff MU
06/09/25 Wales Premier League	Cardiff MU	1-4 HT 0-1	Colwyn Bay
17/02/24 Wales Cup	Cardiff MU	3-2 HT 1-1	Colwyn Bay
30/09/23 Wales Premier League	Colwyn Bay	2-2 HT 1-1	Cardiff MU
26/08/23 Wales Premier League	Cardiff MU	1-0 HT 1-0	Colwyn Bay
16/10/21 Wales Cup	Colwyn Bay	1-0 HT 1-0	Cardiff MU

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	13	12	1	0	44	6	37
2	Connah's Quay	13	10	1	2	30	9	31
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	25	11	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	8	2	3	37	15	26
5	Colwyn Bay	13	8	1	4	22	15	25
6	Barry Town	13	8	1	4	28	23	25
7	Cardiff MU	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
8	Airbus UK	13	7	0	6	25	18	21
9	Cambrian United	13	5	3	5	21	33	18
10	Llandudno	13	5	1	7	22	23	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	3	3	7	12	22	12
12	Haverfordwest County	13	3	1	9	8	19	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	2	3	8	10	32	9
14	Flint Town Utd	13	2	2	9	12	25	8
15	Trefelin BGC	13	1	3	9	8	31	6
16	Holywell Town	13	0	2	11	14	44	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colwyn Bay	Cardiff MU
Flint Town Utd	1-0 W	1-1 D
Briton Ferry	0-1 L	3-0 W
Haverfordwest County	1-0 W	1-0 W
Connah's Quay	2-1 W	0-1 L
Llandudno	2-0 W	1-0 W
T.N.S.	1-5 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Colwyn Bay (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Colwyn Bay

WLWLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
03/10	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
26/09	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
18/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	1-2	5-2	6	1	W
15/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	5-0	5-0	5	0	W
12/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
05/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
31/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-3	1-5	6	2	L
21/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	7	W

Cardiff MU

LWWDDLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	8	0	L
03/10	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
29/09	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
26/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
18/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	10	1	L
11/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
04/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
31/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
28/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
21/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-1	0-5	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MU?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colwyn Bay win (58%). Probabilities: Colwyn Bay 58%, draw 24%, Cardiff MU 18%.

How many goals are expected in Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MU?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Colwyn Bay 1.88 · Cardiff MU 0.96), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MU?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.