Football · Malta Premier League · 21/10, 20:30

Prediction: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Sliema Wanderers

Team pages: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar · Sliema Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0.76

Sliema Wanderers1.44

1X2

20% 27% 53%

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Draw Sliema Wanderers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLDLLW

Sliema Wanderers 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWDDL

Head-to-head

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 1–2–3 Sliema Wanderers (6 last)

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar1-1Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers1-0Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Sliema Wanderers0-0Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar1-2Sliema Wanderers
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0-1Sliema Wanderers
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar1-0Sliema Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 1470 · Sliema Wanderers 1517

	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	Draw	Sliema Wanderers
Our model	19%	29%	52%
Market	21%	25%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sliema Wanderers (rating 1470 vs 1517).
H2H favours Sliema Wanderers: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	Sliema Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.50

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +4’	4.33	3.50	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 1–2–3 Sliema Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Malta Premier League	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	1-1 HT 1-1	Sliema Wanderers
16/01/26 Malta Premier League	Sliema Wanderers	1-0 HT 0-0	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
03/12/25 Malta Jubilee Cup	Sliema Wanderers	0-0 HT 0-0	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
16/08/25 Malta Premier League	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	1-2 HT 1-2	Sliema Wanderers
26/07/25 Club Friendly List	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	0-1 HT 0-0	Sliema Wanderers
04/01/25 Malta Premier League	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	1-0 HT 1-0	Sliema Wanderers

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valletta	8	6	1	1	19	7	19
2	Marsaxlokk FC	8	5	2	1	15	10	17
3	Floriana	8	4	3	1	20	11	15
4	Mosta FC	8	3	4	1	13	11	13
5	Hamrun Spartans	8	3	3	2	13	10	12
6	Sliema Wanderers	8	3	2	3	9	10	11
7	Balzan FC	8	2	4	2	11	9	10
8	Birkirkara	8	3	1	4	9	8	10
9	Hibernians	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
10	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	8	2	2	4	8	12	8
11	Gzira United	8	0	4	4	6	17	4
12	Birzebbuga	8	0	1	7	3	17	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	Sliema Wanderers
Balzan FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Birkirkara	0-2 L	2-1 W
Gzira United	0-0 D	1-1 D
Hibernians	1-1 D	0-2 L
Birzebbuga	1-0 W	2-1 W
Valletta	2-4 L	1-2 L
Tarxien Rainbows FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar

DDLWDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	1-1	2-1	7	8	W
10/10	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
18/09	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
14/09	Gzira United Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
06/09	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
28/08	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
22/08	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Valletta Malta Premier League	2-1	2-4	–	–	L
10/05	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
05/05	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	8	D

Sliema Wanderers

DLLLWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
11/10	Gzira United Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	6	8	D
20/09	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/09	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	2-0	3-1	5	1	W
06/09	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
30/08	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
21/08	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
30/04	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Sliema Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sliema Wanderers win (53%). Probabilities: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 20%, draw 27%, Sliema Wanderers 53%.

How many goals are expected in Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Sliema Wanderers?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 0.76 · Sliema Wanderers 1.44), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Sliema Wanderers?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.