Football · Malta Premier League · 26/10, 18:00
Prediction: Floriana vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Team pages: Floriana · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Floriana1.83
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0.99
1X2
Floriana
Draw
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Floriana
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Floriana
4–1–0
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
(5 last)
- Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0-3Floriana
- Floriana0-0Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Floriana3-1Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Floriana1-0Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0-3Floriana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Floriana 1551 · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 1466
| Floriana | Draw | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Floriana (rating 1551 vs 1466).
- H2H favours Floriana: 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Floriana | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.3 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 1.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Floriana 4–1–0 Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Malta Premier League | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Floriana |
| 28/01/26 Malta FA Trophy | Floriana | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 24/09/25 Malta Premier League | Floriana | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 02/02/25 Malta Premier League | Floriana | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 28/08/24 Malta Premier League | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Floriana |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 3 | Floriana | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Sliema Wanderers | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| 5 | Mosta FC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 6 | Hamrun Spartans | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 7 | Hibernians | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 12 |
| 8 | Balzan FC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | Birkirkara | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 4 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Floriana | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
|---|---|---|
| Birkirkara | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Balzan FC | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Hibernians | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Marsaxlokk FC | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Gzira United | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Sliema Wanderers | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Birzebbuga | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Floriana (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Floriana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
3-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 17/10 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/09 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/09 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Floriana vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Floriana win (56%). Probabilities: Floriana 56%, draw 24%, Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 19%.
How many goals are expected in Floriana vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Floriana 1.83 · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 0.99), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Floriana vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.